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Tazaki, Makiko; Kimura, Takashi; Shimizu, Ryo; Tamai, Hiroshi; Nakatani, Takayoshi; Suda, Kazunori
JAEA-Review 2022-056, 54 Pages, 2023/01
JAEA-Review-2022-056.pdf:1.86MB
As part of the "Research on Factor Analysis and Technical Processes for Achieving Denuclearization" South Africa's nuclear development and denuclearization cases were investigated then analyzed from seven denuclearization factors namely (1) motivation for nuclear development, (2) internal and external situations at the time of denuclearization decision, (3) progress of nuclear development, (4) effects of sanctions, (5) incentives for denuclearization, (6) international framework for denuclearization, (7) denuclearization and verification methods. At the same time, characteristics of its denuclearization and lessons learned from the denuclearization were also analyzed. South Africa shifted its nuclear activities from research and development of "peaceful nuclear detonation" in the 1970s to developing "limited nuclear deterrence" and finally to manufacturing "transportable nuclear weapons" in the late 1980s. By then, it had completed producing six nuclear explosive devices using highly enriched uranium. However, in 1989, along with the abolition of the apartheid policy, South Africa decided denuclearization and dismantled its nuclear explosive devices and related facilities. Upon completion of dismantlement, it joined the Treaty on the Non- Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and concluded a Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement (CSA) with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The South Africa has remained one of the rare countries that has continued to the peaceful use nuclear energy, and its voluntary denuclearization is considered as a good example of denuclearization in the future.
Tazaki, Makiko; Shimizu, Ryo; Kimura, Takashi; Tamai, Hiroshi; Nakatani, Takayoshi; Suda, Kazunori
JAEA-Review 2021-076, 108 Pages, 2022/03
JAEA-Review-2021-076.pdf:3.89MB
In order to find ways to lead the denuclearization successfully, effectively, and efficiently in the future, "Research on factor analysis and technical process for achieving denuclearization" has been conducted since 2018. This report covers the first half of the research, namely "Factor analysis for denuclearization", summarizing the results of the case study and factor analysis of denuclearization. First, South Africa, Iraq, Libya, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Belarus, North Korea, Iran and Syria were selected as the initial research target countries, and the history of nuclear development as well as characteristics of denuclearization in each country were investigated and analyzed. Next, in order to consider the measures for the international community to lead the denuclearization of the target countries, eight main denuclearization factors ((1) Motivation for nuclear development, (2) Internal and external situation at the time of the denuclearization, (3) Progress of nuclear development, (4) Effects of sanctions, (5) International framework for denuclearization, (6) Incentives for denuclearization, (7) Denuclearization method, (8) Verification method/verifier) were found out. Finally, the contents of each denuclearization factor from (1) to (8)) in above target countries except Syria were analyzed, together with whether each factor was effective for denuclearization or not. In addition, in order to lead denuclearization effectively and efficiently, what should be done in relation to the eight factors were considered. These results are expected to serve as a basis for research on the technological process of denuclearization, and to help considering the way to accomplish denuclearization.
Tazaki, Makiko; Shimizu, Ryo; Kimura, Takashi; Nakatani, Takayoshi; Tamai, Hiroshi; Suda, Kazunori
Dai-42-Kai Nihon Kaku Busshitsu Kanri Gakkai Nenji Taikai Kaigi Rombunshu (Internet), 4 Pages, 2021/11
no abstracts in English
Tazaki, Makiko; Kimura, Takashi; Shimizu, Ryo; Tamai, Hiroshi; Nakatani, Takayoshi; Suda, Kazunori
Nihon Kaku Busshitsu Kanri Gakkai Dai-40-Kai Nenji Taikai Puroshidhingusushu, p.81 - 84, 2019/11
South Africa had developed, manufactured, and possessed nuclear weapons, but later dismantled them all together with related facilities and equipment. After joining Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons as a non-nuclear weapon state and concluding a Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement with the Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), it started peaceful use of nuclear energy. In that sense, South Africa's denuclearization is one of good examples of past denuclearization in the world, although the South Africa's specific policy of apartheid had been deeply connected with its nuclear weapons development and denuclearization. Analysing South Africa's motivations for nuclear weapons development, incentives for denuclearization, and characteristics of its denuclearization could serve as a good reference for not only preventing nuclear weapons development but also considering their denuclearization in current and future states.